A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
