Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
